832 AXPZ20 KNHC 090240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 19.1N 123.7W at 09/0300 UTC moving WNW at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm in the northern semicircle of the center. Peak seas are currently 21 ft. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to become post- tropical on Saturday. Seas are expected to drop below 12 ft by early Sun morning. Bonnie will quickly move westward through Sun, as a post- tropical low, then dissipate by Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A 1009 mb low pressure area centered near 13N108W continues to become better organized along a tropical wave. Showers and thunderstorms, while not intensifying, persist near the center. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and there is a medium chance this low pressure will form into a tropical depression later this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 kt, and a high chance through five days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 108W extending from 06N to 17N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 12N to 14N between 107W and 109W. Moderate to fresh E winds are likely active from 13N to 15N between 105W and 108W with 5 to 7 ft seas. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N79W to 09N95W to a 1009 mb low near 13N108W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 92W and 96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week. A ridge continues to dominate the Baja California Norte offshore waters, with gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas. Fresh to locally strong gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 6 ft. These gap wind result in part from high pressure extending from the western Gulf of Mexico through southern Mexico, between the tropical wave mentioned above and another tropical wave approaching from the Caribbean. Light to gentle variable winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 to 5 ft. In the Gulf of California, light gentle southerly winds prevail, with seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, the strong gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish through Sat morning. Moderate to fresh winds will develop across Baja California Norte on Sat and continue through Mon. Fresh southerly winds may pulse over the northern Gulf of California early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo/offshore Nicaragua region and downwind to about 90W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. Elsewhere, gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of it. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua through Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will resume in this region through Mon along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell, except for swell reaching 8 ft off Ecuador through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Bonnie continues to impact the waters from 18N to 22N and between 125W and 120W. Please refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Bonnie, and for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Outside of Bonnie, weak ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, supporting gentle to moderate winds with seas 3 to 5 ft north of 25N and moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas south of 25N and west of 120W. Outside of the area near the low pressure along the tropical wave, gentle to moderate SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough and east of 120W, except near the tropical wave as described above. For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually dissipate through early next week west of 130W as Bonnie weakens and moves west of the area. As the low pressure along the tropical wave continues to move farther west, seas will gradually increase through the weekend and into early next week within 90 nm of the center of the low. Farther south, large long period SE swell will continue to spread toward the equator through the weekend. $$ Christensen