000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly downgraded Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 18.6N 121.8W at 08/2100 UTC and moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently 22 ft. Seas are expected to drop below 12 ft by early Sun morning. Bonnie will quickly move westward through Sun. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to become post-tropical on Saturday. The post-tropical low should then dissipate by Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 106W extending from 04N to 16N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 15N between 104W and 110W. Moderate to fresh E winds are likely active from 10N to 15N between 104W and 108W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the central or western part of the eastern North Pacific basin during the weekend or early next week while moving generally westward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a medium chance of formation through 48 hour and a high chance through 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N97W to a 1009 mb low near 13N107W to 10N119W to 09N131W. The ITCZ continues from 09N131W to beyond 08N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 81W and 101W and from 07N to 16N between 113W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week. A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Norte, with gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas. Fresh to locally strong gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 6 ft. Farther south, the passage of the tropical wave mentioned above is supporting E moderate to fresh winds over the western Guerrero offshore waters with seas 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 to 5 ft. In the Gulf of California, light gentle southerly winds prevail, with seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will become strong once again tonight and end by Sat morning. Moderate to fresh winds will develop across Baja California Norte on Sat and continue through Mon. Fresh southerly winds may pulse over the northern Gulf of California early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist elsewhere through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds persist across the Gulf of Papagayo/offshore Nicaragua region and downwind to about 90W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. Elsewhere, gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of it. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua through Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds will resume in this region through Mon along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Bonnie will be the main impact to the waters from 15N to 20N west Clarion Island to 120W through today. Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie. Also, see the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Outside of Bonnie, 1021 mb high pressure centered near 30N135W area dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 25N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 25N to the ITCZ/monsoon trough, west of 120W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft west of 120W outside of a 120 nm radii of Bonnie. Gentle to moderate SW winds persist east of 120W, except near the tropical wave as described above. For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast across the open waters before gradually dissipating early next week west of 130W. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie will move farther away from the offshore forecast waters today. Farther south, large long period SE swell will continue to spread toward the equator through the end of the week. $$ AKR