000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081613 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 18.3N 120.4W at 08/1500 UTC and is moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Convection continues to weaken around Bonnie, with scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the center. Peak seas are currently 25 ft and is expected to drop below 12 ft by early Sun morning. A general westward motion is expected during the next few days with a slight reduction in forward speed Sunday through early next week. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength later today and then become a post- tropical cyclone on Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 104W/105W extending from 05N to 16N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 17N between 104W and 108W. Moderate to fresh E winds are likely active from 10N to 15N between 95W and 105W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N105W to 09N133W. The ITCZ continues from 09N133W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 96W and 100W and from 08N to 13N between 109W and 140W OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, with gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas. Fresh to strong gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Farther south, the passage of the tropical wave mentioned above is supporting E moderate to fresh winds over the western Oaxaca offshore waters. Light to gentle variable winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 to 5 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds prevail, with seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, seas near Clarion Island will continue subsiding as Hurricane Bonnie moves farther west and away from the Mexican offshore waters. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will end later this morning, following a strong tropical wave currently moving west of the offshore waters. Looking ahead, moderate to locally fresh winds will develop across Baja California Norte later this weekend and into early next week. Fresh southerly winds may pulse over the northern Gulf of California early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist elsewhere through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds remain across the Gulf of Papagayo/offshore Nicaragua region and downwind to about 90W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. Elsewhere, gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough along and around 09N while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of it. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua through Sun. Then moderate to fresh winds will resume in this region through Mon along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Bonnie will be the main impact to the waters from 15N to 20N west Clarion Island to 120W through today. Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie. Also, see the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Outside of Bonnie, 1021 mb high pressure centered near 30N135W area dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 25N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 25N to the ITCZ/monsoon trough, west of 120W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft west of 120W outside of a 120 nm radii of Bonnie. Gentle to moderate SW winds persist east of 120W, except near the tropical wave as described above. For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast across the open waters before gradually dissipating early next week west of 130W. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie will move farther away from the offshore forecast waters today. Farther south, large long period SE swell will continue to spread toward the equator through the end of the week. $$ AReinhart