000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 18.2N 118.5W at 08/0900 UTC moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Convection is weakening as Bonnie moves over cooler water. This weakening is fairly recent, and winds are still estimated to be hurricane-force. However, winds are expected to diminish through the next couple of days as Bonnie becomes post-tropical as it continues to move westward. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 102W/103W extending from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to 15N between 100W and 105W. A ship near the wave axis recently reported winds to 20 kt, outside of convection. Moderate to fresh E winds are likely active from 10N to 15N between 95W and 105W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves westward or west- northwestward at about 10 to 15 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N90W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N103W to 11N110W. Another segment of the monsoon trough extends from 10N120W to 10N135W. The ITCZ continues from 11N135W to beyond 09N140W. No significant convection is evident other than that described above in the tropical wave section. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie, forecast to continue to move westward and away from the Mexican offshore waters today. Also, see the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro producing moderate N to NE winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec while farther south the passage of the tropical wave mentioned above is supporting E moderate to fresh winds over the western Oaxaca offshore waters. Light to gentle variable winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 to 5 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds prevail, with seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, rough seas near Clarion Island are subsiding as Hurricane Bonnie continues to move farther west and away from the Mexican offshore waters. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, following a strong tropical wave currently moving west of the offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas persist elsewhere through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh southerly winds may pulse over the norther Gulf of California early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds remain across the Gulf of Papagayo/offshore Nicaragua region and downwind to about 90W. Elsewhere, gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough along and around 09N while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of it. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua into Sun. Then moderate to fresh winds will resume in this region through Mon along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Bonnie will be the main impact to the waters from 15N to 20N west Clarion Island to 120W through today. Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie. Also, see the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Outside of Bonnie, 1023 mb high pressure centered near 32N129W area dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 20N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 20N to the ITCZ/monsoon trough, west of 120W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft west of 120W outside of a 90 nm radii of Bonnie. Gentle to moderate SW winds persist east of 120W, except near the tropical wave as described above. For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast across the open waters before gradually dissipating early next week west of 130W. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie will move away from the offshore forecast waters today. Farther south, large long period SE swell will continue to spread toward the equator through the end of the week. $$ Christensen