000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080338 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 18.1N 116.9W at 08/0300 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong showers and thunderstorms are active within 90 nm in the NE semicircle of the hurricane, and within 60 nm in the SW semicircle of the hurricane. Bonnie will maintain hurricane strength into Fri as it continues to move west. Bonnie is expected to gradually weaken thereafter as it continues to move WNW over open waters, eventually dissipating early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 101W extending from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to 15N between 98W and 102W, and from 08N to 10N between 103W and 105W. A ship near the wave axis reported winds to 20 kt, outside of convection. Moderate to fresh E winds are likely active from 10N to 15N between 95W and 105W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves westward or west- northwestward at about 10 to 15 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the monsoon trough extends from new to new to 1009 mb low pressure near 11N110W to 12N110W. Another segment of the monsoon trough extends from 11N115W to 09N125W to 10N135W. The ITCZ continues from 11N115W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 09N to 12N between 107W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie, forecast to continue to move westward and away from the Revillagigedo Islands overnight into early Fri. Also, see the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro producing moderate N to NE winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec while farther south the passage of the tropical wave mentioned above is supporting E moderate to fresh winds over the Oaxaca offshore waters. Light to gentle variable winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3 to 5 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds prevail, with seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, rough seas and strong SW winds will still impact Clarion Island and surrounding waters into tonight, but all tropical storm advisories have been allowed to expire for Mexican offshore waters as Bonnie continues to move westward into open waters. Winds and seas will diminish near Clarion Island by early Fri. Farther east, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into Fri morning, following a strong tropical wave currently moving west of the offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds remain across the Gulf of Papagayo region and downwind to about 90W. Elsewhere, gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough along and around 09N while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of it. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua into Sun. Then moderate to fresh winds will resume in this region through Mon along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Bonnie will be the main impact to the waters from 15N to 20N west Clarion Island to 120W through Fri. Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie. Also, see the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Outside of Bonnie, 1022 mb high pressure centered near 32N130W area dominates the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 20N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 20N to the ITCZ/monsoon trough, west of 120W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft west of 120W outside of a 90 nm radii of Bonnie. Gentle to moderate SW winds persist east of 120W, except near the tropical wave as described above For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast across the open waters before gradually dissipating early next week west of 130W. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie will move away from the offshore forecast waters on Fri. Farther south, large long period SE swell will continue to spread toward the equator through the end of the week. $$ Christensen