000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 17.7N 115.3W at 07/2100 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 16N to 20N between 112W and 117W. A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with a quick westward motion forecast to continue through Sunday. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength on Friday and then become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 99W extending from 03N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 15N between 97W and 104W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at about 13 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 09N100W to 14N108W, then continues SW of Bonnie from 11N113W to 09N128W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection related to Bonnie and the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is N of 03N E of 83W, and from 07N to 14N W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie, forecast to move away from the Baja California Sur offshore waters late tonight into early Fri. Also, see the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing moderate N to NE winds with seas of 5-6 ft. Moderate to fresh gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec while farther south the passage of the tropical wave mentioned above is supporting E moderate to fresh winds across the Chiapas and Oaxaca offshore waters. Light to gentle variable winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3-5 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds prevail, with seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, outside of the impacts of Hurricane Bonnie and the disturbance forming well S and SW of SW Mexico, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected to develop Sun and continue through Mon with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except slightly higher seas near the entrance to the Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds remain across the Gulf of Papagayo region and downwind to about 90W. Elsewhere, gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough along and around 09N while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of it. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range are expected in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua tonight, and again Fri night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail in this region through Mon, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie, forecast to move away from the Baja California Sur offshore waters tonight into Fri. Also, see the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. High pressure of 1023 mb located N of the area dominates the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between these two features is leading to moderate to locally fresh trades, particularly from 10N to 18N W of 125W. Light and variable winds are noted N of 24N and W of 125W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, reaching 8 to 9 ft in SE swell S of the equator roughly between 100W and 120W. For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast across the open waters through late week. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie will move away from the offshore forecast waters on Fri. Large long period SE swell will continue to spread toward the equator through the end of the week. $$ Ramos