000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070920 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 17.1N 112.5W at 07/0900 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm SW semicircle and 30 nm NE semicircle. Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength by Friday and become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W and extends from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 02N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 10N. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 94W and 101W. This convective activity have become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to a 1009 mb low pressure located near 10N95W to 12N105W, then continues SW of Bonnie from 12N114W to 09N130W to 08N140W. Aside from the convection related to Bonnie and the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen on either side of the monsoon trough from 07N to 12N W of 128W. Scattered moderate convection is S of Bonnie from 08N to 11N between 108W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie, forecast to move away from the offshore forecast waters Thu night into Fri. Also, see the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh gap winds are also occurring in and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3-5 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds prevail, with seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, outside of the impacts of Hurricane Bonnie and the disturbance forming well S and SW of SW Mexico, moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except seas of 3 to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer pass indicates moderate NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 87W. Elsewhere, gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough along around 09N while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of it. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range are expected in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua tonight, and again Fri night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail in this region through Mon, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Elsewhere, expect gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie, forecast to move away from the offshore forecast waters Thu night into Fri. Also, see the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. High pressure of 1021mb located near 32N132W dominates the forecast waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between these two features is leading to moderate to locally fresh trades, particularly from 10N to 18N W of 125W. Light and variable winds are noted N of 24N and W of 125W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, reaching 8 to 9 ft in SE swell S of the equator roughly between 100W and 120W. For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast across the open waters through late week. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie will affect Clarion Island today, then move away from the offshore forecast waters on Fri. Large long period SE swell will continue to spread toward the equator through the end of the week. $$ GR