585 AXPZ20 KNHC 070314 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jul 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 16.9N 111.3W at 07/0300 UTC moving WNW at 12 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm SE semicircle and 30 nm NW semicircle. Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 94W/95W from Chiapas to 02N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 92W and 98W. Similar convective activity is near the northern end of the wave axis over Chiapas. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 08N83W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 09N95W to 10N104W, then continues SW of Bonnie from 12N113W to 08N125W to 10N140W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 08N to 12N W of 128W. Scattered moderate convection is S of Bonnie from 08N to 11N between 107W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie, forecast to move away from the offshore forecast waters Thu night into Fri. Also, see the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate gap winds are also occurring in and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3-5 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds prevail, with seas of 2 ft or less. For the forecast, outside of the impacts of Hurricane Bonnie and the disturbance forming well S and SW of SW Mexico, generally quiet conditions will prevail with moderate or less winds and seas less than 6 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough along around 09N while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of it. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua through Mon with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds are expected with seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie, forecast to move away from the offshore forecast waters Thu night into Fri. Also, see the Tropical Wave section for information on a possible tropical depression forecast to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. A surface trough is noted from 30N122W to 25N134W. A ridge dominates the waters S of the trough. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is leading to moderate to locally fresh trades, particularly from 10N to 17N W of 125W. For remaining areas N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, mainly gentle winds prevail. S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are noted. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, reaching 8 to 9 ft in SE swell S of the equator roughly between 100W and 120W. For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast across the open waters through late week. Looking ahead, the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of the Revillagigedo Islands by tonight, affect Clarion Island Thu, then move away from the offshore forecast waters Fri. Large long period SE swell will continue to spread toward the equator through the end of the week. $$ GR