000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062102 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 16.5N 110.1W at 06/2100 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm east semicircle and 30 nm west semicircle. A west to west-northwest motion forecast through the week. Some fluctuations in strength are possible today, but a gradual weakening trend should commence later tonight and continue through Sat. Bonnie is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a few days. Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 94W from Chiapas to 02N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 92W and 98W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development in association with this wave, and a tropical depression may form well S or SW of the SW coast of Mexico this weekend, while the disturbance moves WNW at around 10 kt. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N99W, then continues SW of Bonnie from 12N110W to 09N120W to 09N130W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 04N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 89W and 92W. Scattered moderate convection is seen on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 08N to 12N W of 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie, forecast to move away from the offshore forecast waters Thu night. Also, see Tropical Wave section for information on low pressure that may form this weekend well S and SW of SW Mexico. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate gap winds are also occurring in and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3-5 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds prevail, with seas of 2 ft or less. For the forecast, outside of the impacts of Hurricane Bonnie and the disturbance forming well S and SW of SW Mexico, generally quiet conditions will prevail with moderate or less winds and seas less than 6 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough along around 09N while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of it. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua through Sun night with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds are expected with seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie and the Tropical Waves section above for information on a developing disturbance well S and SW of SW Mexico. A surface trough is noted from 30N123W to 27N130W. High pressure, with a 1021 center near 25N133W, dominates the waters S of the trough. The pressure gradient between this high and the ITCZ is leading to moderate to locally fresh trades, particularly from 10N to 17N W of 125W. For remaining areas N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, mainly gentle winds prevail. S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are noted. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, reaching 8 ft S of the equator between 112W and 118W. For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast across the open waters through late week. Looking ahead, the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of the Revillagigedo Islands by tonight, affect Clarion Island Thu, then move away from the offshore forecast waters Fri. Large long period SE swell will continue to spread toward the equator through the end of the week. $$ KONARIK