000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 16.1N 108.9W at 06/1500 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through the week with a slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection exists within 60 nm of Bonnie's center. Little change in strength is expected through Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday night and continue through Friday. Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 93W from SE Mexico to 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over SW Guatemala and coastal waters. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the wave axis from 14N-16N between 92W-94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N90W to 09N100W, then continues SW of Bonnie from 12N110W to 09N120W to 09N130W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 00N140W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 89W and 92W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere from 06N to 10N between 89W and 94W. This convective activity is associated with an area of disturbed weather. Scattered moderate convection is seen on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 08N to 12N W of 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie, forecast to move away from the offshore forecast waters by Fri. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds with seas of 4-6 ft based on recent altimeter pass. Moderate gap winds are also occurring in and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas of 3-5 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail, with seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, an area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of the coast of Central America is expected to spawn an area of low pressure southwest of the coast of southern Mexico toward the end of the week. After that, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough along around 09N while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of it. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 4 to 6 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua through Sun night with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds are expected with seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell.. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie. A surface trough is noted from 30N123W to 27N132W followed by another surface trough over the far NW corner of the forecast area. High pressure, with a 1021 center near 25N134W, dominates the waters S of these troughs. The pressure gradient between this high and the ITCZ is leading to moderate to locally fresh trades, particularly from 10N to 17N W of 125W based on recent scatterometer data. For remaining areas N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail. S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are noted. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, reaching 8 ft S of the equator between 112W and 118W. For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast across the open waters into late week. Looking ahead, the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of the Revillagigedo Islands by tonight, likely affecting Clarion Island on Thu, and moving away from the offshore forecast waters on Fri. Large long period SE swell will continue to spread toward the equator until the end of the week. $$ KONARIK