336 AXPZ20 KNHC 060322 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 15.7N 107.1W at 06/0300 UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection exists within 90 nm of Bonnie's center. Bonnie is moving toward the west-northwest. A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through the week with a slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through Thursday. Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W/91W from Guatemala to 08N, moving W at 10 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is just behind the wave axis affecting parts of W Honduras, El Salvador and SE Guatemala. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 08N90W to 09N100W. The monsoon trough continues SW of Bonnie from 12N110W to 09N120W to 09N130W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 07N140W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 87W and 90W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 06N to 09N between 89W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 12N between W of 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie, forecast to move away from the offshore forecast waters by Fri. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate gap winds are also occurring in and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas 3-5 ft except 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja offshore waters will persist through Wed night between high pressure to the west and lower pressure over NW Mexico. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of the coast of southern Mexico toward the end of the week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough along around 09N while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of it. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except 4 to 6 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua through Sun with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected with seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Major Hurricane Bonnie. A surface trough is noted from 30N126W to 26N140W followed by another trough over the far NW corner of the forecast area. High pressure dominates S of these troughs. The pressure gradient between this high and the ITCZ is leading to moderate to locally fresh trades, strongest between 10N and 19N. For remaining areas N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail. S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, reaching 8 ft S of the equator. For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are forecast across the open waters into late week. Looking ahead, the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of the Revillagigedo Islands by Wed night, likely affecting Clarion Island on Thu, and moving away from the offshore forecast waters on Fri. Large long period SE swell will continue to spread toward the equator until the end of the week. $$ GR