000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051527 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Major Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 15.2N 104.3W at 05/1500 UTC moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection exists within 120 NM of Bonnie's center. A west- northwestward to westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Some fluctuations in strength are possible through Thursday. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin thereafter. Peak seas are expected to reach near 30 ft later today and Wed. Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 88W from El Salvador to 09N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N94W. The monsoon trough continues from 11N107W to 09N119W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 78W and 89W and from 07N to 11N between 110W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Major Hurricane Bonnie. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds are along the Baja California offshore waters with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate gap winds are also occurring in and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to moderate variable winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas 3-6 ft except 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja offshore waters will persist through Wed night between high pressure to the west and lower pressure over NW Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... North of the monsoon trough along around 09N, variable winds are light to gentle, except for locally moderate gap winds in the Papagayo region. South of the monsoon trough, S to SW gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 3-6 ft. For the forecast, winds and seas will be quiescent over the Central American and equatorial waters for at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Major Hurricane Bonnie. A dissipating cold front has devolved into a low pressure trough, that extends this morning from 30N128W to 26N140W. High pressure dominates S of this trough. The pressure gradient between this high and the ITCZ and monsoon trough is leading to moderate to locally fresh trades, strongest between 11N and 20N. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, highest S of the Equator. For the forecast, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters into late week. Looking ahead, the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of Clarion and Socorro Islands on Thu and continue progressing west- northwestward away from land through Fri. A large long period SE swell will spread toward the equator today. This should continue to affect the equatorial waters through the end of the week. $$ KONARIK