000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050327 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 14.5N 101.4W at 05/0300 UTC moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are estimated around 27 ft. A 0030 UTC Altika altimeter pass observed 16 ft seas just east of the center. A west- northwestward or westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tomorrow morning, followed by little change in intensity until Wednesday. Peak seas may reach around 30 ft Tue and Wed. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin thereafter. Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 140W from 10N-21N, moving W around 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this tropical wave at the moment. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N93W. The monsoon trough continues from 11N106W to 09N119W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-10N between 83W-90W. Isolated moderate convection is also noted from 08N-11N between 108W-122W and from 08N-12N between 128W-132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW winds are along the Baja California offshore waters with 4-6 ft seas. Light to moderate variable winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas 3-5 ft except 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, expect dangerous marine conditions off the coast of SW Mexico through mid week as Bonnie moves through the region. Bonnie should move west of the Mexican offshore waters by late Fri. Elsewhere, NW moderate to fresh winds along the Baja offshore waters will persist through Wed night between high pressure to the west and lower pressure over NW Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... North of the monsoon trough along around 09N, variable winds are light to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, SW gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, winds and seas will be quiescent over the Central American and equatorial waters for at least the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie. A weak cold front has reached the NW corner of our waters, extending from 30N134W to 28N140W. Surface ridging south of the front extends from 27N140W to 25N120W to 20N110W. The modest pressure gradient from the ridge to lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing gentle up to fresh NE trades, strongest between 12N and 22N. Seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through at least mid-week. Looking ahead, the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of Clarion and Socorro Islands on Thu and continue progressing west-northwestward away from land on Fri. Beginning on Tue, a large long period SE swell will reach our southern border. This should continue to affect the equatorial waters through the end of the week. $$ Landsea