000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042138 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 13.9N 100.3W at 04/2100 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are estimated to reach 29 ft tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight, followed by little overall change in intensity Tuesday and Wednesday. Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 139W from 11N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this tropical wave at the moment. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N93W. The monsoon trough continues from 12N106W to 07N118W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 03N and E of 86W. Scattered showers are noted within 300 nm N of the boundaries between 116W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW winds are along the Baja California offshore waters with 4-6 ft seas. Light to moderate variable winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas 3-5 ft except 2-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, expect dangerous marine conditions off the coast of S Mexico through mid week as Bonnie moves through the region. Elsewhere, NW moderate to fresh winds along the Baja offshore waters will persist through Wed night between high pressure to the west and lower pressure over NW Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... North of the monsoon trough along around 10N, winds are gentle to moderate out of the NE to E. South of the monsoon trough, SW gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Guatemala-El Salvador waters due to W swell from Bonnie mixed with S swell. Elsewhere, seas are 4-5 ft. For the forecast, Bonnie has moved west of the region with winds and seas in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters diminishing today. Otherwise, winds and seas will be quiescent for the Central American and equatorial waters through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie. Surface ridging extending along 27N dominates the forecast waters. The pressure gradient between this ridging and and ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing moderate to fresh ENE trades. Seas are generally 4-6 ft across the High Seas domain. For the forecast, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through at least mid-week. Looking ahead, the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of Clarion and Socorro Islands on Thu and continue progressing away from land on Fri. Beginning on Tue, a large long period SE swell will reach our southern border. This should continue to affect the equatorial waters through the end of the week. $$ ERA