000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040919
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 13.6N 97.3W at 04/0900 UTC
moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.
Peak seas are near 21 ft. A 0411 UTC Sentinel-3A altimeter pass
observed values up to 17 ft just east of Bonnie's center. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted north of 11N 
between 96W- 103W. This general motion is expected to continue 
through midweek. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie is 
expected to move parallel to, but remain south of, the coasts of 
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. 
Some strengthening is forecast through midweek. Peak seas are 
expected to reach around 27 ft by Wed.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 136W from 11N-21N, moving
W around 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated 
with this tropical wave at the moment.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N86W to 10N89W. The monsoon trough continues from 14N108W to 
TO 07N124W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N136W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted east
of 80W. Isolated moderate convection is noted 07N-10N between
90W-100W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Bonnie.

Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW winds are along the Baja 
California offshore waters with 6-7 ft seas. Light to moderate 
variable winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
waters with seas 3-5 ft except 2-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, expect dangerous marine conditions off the 
coast of S Mexico through mid week as H Bonnie moves through the 
region. Elsewhere, NW moderate to fresh winds along the Baja 
offshore waters will persist through Wed night between high 
pressure to the west and lower pressure over NW Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

North of the monsoon trough along around 10N, winds are gentle to
moderate out of the NE to E. South of the monsoon trough, winds 
are gentle to moderate out of the S to SW. Seas are 5-7 ft in 
the Guatemala-El Salvador waters due to W swell from Hurricane
Bonnie mixed with S swell. Elsewhere, seas are 4-5 ft.

For the forecast, Hurricane Bonnie has moved west of the region 
with winds and seas in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore 
waters diminishing today. Otherwise, winds and seas will be 
quiescent for the Central American and equatorial waters through 
the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on 
Hurricane Bonnie.

Surface ridging extending just south of 30N dominates the 
forecast waters. The pressure gradient between this ridging and
and ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing moderate to fresh ENE trades.  
Seas are generally 4-6 ft across the High Seas domain.

For the forecast, little change in conditions are forecast 
across the open waters through at least Wed. Looking ahead, the 
center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of 
Clarion and Socorro Islands on Thu and continue progressing away
from land on Fri. Beginning late Tue, a large long period SE 
swell will reach our southern border. This should continue to 
affect the equatorial waters through the end of the week.

$$
Landsea