000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 13.2N 95.5W at 04/0300 UTC moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 11N-16N between 94W-101W. Peak seas are near 20 ft. This general motion should continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to remain south of, but move parallel to, the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Peak seas max reach near 32 ft by Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 134W from 12N-21N, moving W around 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this tropical wave at the moment. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 10N89W. The monsoon trough continues from 12N106W to TO 07N123W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N132W. Isolated moderate convection is noted N of 07N E of 92W and from 08N-11N between 112W-122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie. Moderate to fresh NW winds are along the Baja California offshore waters with 5-6 ft seas. Light to moderate variable winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas 3-5 ft except 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, expect dangerous marine conditions off the coast of S Mexico through mid week as H Bonnie moves through the region. Elsewhere, NW moderate to fresh winds along the Baja offshore waters will persist through Wed night between high pressure to the west and lower pressure over NW Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie. Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-5 ft across the Central American and equatorial waters. For the forecast, winds and seas in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters will diminish across the region Mon. Otherwise, winds and seas will be quiescent through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Bonnie. Surface ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ, providing gentle to moderate NE winds N of 20N and W of 124W, and NE to E moderate to fresh winds between the ITCZ and 20N W of 130W. East of 110W over the tropical eastern Pacific, outside of the immediate area of T.S. Bonnie gentle to moderate SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough with 5 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through early next week. Looking ahead, the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of Clarion and Socorro Islands by mid week. Also, SE swell of 7 to 8 ft may cross into the region east of 120W reaching as far north as 05N also by mid week. $$ Landsea