622 AXPZ20 KNHC 032158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 12.3N 94.1W at 03/2100 UTC moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Peak seas are estimated to reach 18 ft within 45 nm NW and SE quadrants, 90 nm NE quadrant, and 30 nm NW quadrant. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane tonight. On the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to remain south, but move parallel to, the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 132W from 13N to 21N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A 1010 mb low is noted along the wave, centered near 17N132W. There is no significant convection associated with this tropical wave at the moment. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N105W to 07N122W, then transitions to ITCZ from that point to 11N133W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm N of the boundary between 111W and 121W, and W of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie. Moderate to fresh NW winds are along the Baja California offshore waters with 4 to 6 ft seas. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 3 ft dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, except for moderate to fresh NW winds across the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshores along with seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, expect dangerous marine conditions off the coast of southern Mexico through mid week as TS Bonnie moves through the region. Elsewhere, NW moderate to fresh winds along the Baja offshore waters will persist through Thu between high pressure to the west and lower pressure northeast of the area. Seas will build off Baja California Norte in NW swell through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds with seas ranging between 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters. For the forecast, TS Bonnie will strengthen to a hurricane near 13.0N 96.5W Mon morning, move to 13.8N 99.4W Mon afternoon, 14.7N 102.3W Tue morning, 15.3N 105.0W Tue afternoon, 15.7N 107.4W Wed morning, and 16.0N 109.5W Wed afternoon. Bonnie will change little in intensity as it moves to 16.6N 113.6W Thu afternoon. Afterward, Bonnie will continue farther west of the area through the middle of next week. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Mon. Looking ahead, farther south, seas will build to 7 to 8 ft in SW swell from Ecuador to Panama by mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie. Surface ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ, providing gentle to moderate NE winds N of 20N and W of 124W, and NE to E moderate to fresh winds between the ITCZ and 20N W of 130W. East of 110W over the tropical eastern Pacific, outside of the immediate area of T.S. Bonnie gentle to moderate SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough with 5 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through early next week. Looking ahead, the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of Clarion and Socorro Islands by mid week. Also, SE swell of 7 to 8 ft may cross into the region east of 120W reaching as far north as 05N also by mid week. $$ ERA