000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jul 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 11.9N 92.4W at 03/1500 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are estimated to reach 16 ft within 90 nm NE quadrant, 45 nm SE quadrant, and 30 nm NW quadrant. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection prevails from 08N to 16N between 89W- 99W. A westward to west-northwestward motion should continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to remain south, but move parallel to, the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 11N to 21N with axis near 130W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no convection associated with this tropical wave at the moment. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N105W to 07N120W to 11N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N between 109W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie. Moderate to fresh NW winds are along the Baja California offshore waters with 5 to 7 ft seas. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 3 ft dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, except for moderate to fresh NW winds across the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshores along with seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, expect dangerous marine conditions off the coast of southern Mexico through mid week as Bonnie moves through the region. Elsewhere, NW moderate to fresh winds along the Baja offshore waters will persist through Thu between high pressure to the west and lower pressure northeast of the area. Seas will build off Baja California Norte in NW swell through early Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds with seas to 5 ft in southerly swell dominate across the remainder offshore waters. For the forecast, Bonnie Bonnie will strengthen to a hurricane near 12.5N 94.5W this evening, move to 13.3N 97.5W Mon morning, 14.1N 100.4W Mon evening, 14.9N 103.3W Tue morning, 15.4N 105.9W Tue evening, and 15.7N 108.2W Wed morning. Bonnie will change little in intensity as it moves to 16.2N 112.5W early Thu. Afterward, Bonnie will continue farther west of the area through the middle of next week. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Mon. Looking ahead, farther south, seas will build to 7 to 8 ft in SW swell from Ecuador to Panama by mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie. Surface ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ, providing gentle to moderate NE winds north of 20N and west of 124W, and NE to E moderate to fresh winds between the ITCZ and 20N W of 132W. East of 110W over the tropical eastern Pacific, outside of the immediate area of T.S. Bonnie gentle to moderate SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough with 5 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through early next week. Looking ahead, the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of Clarion and Socorro Islands by mid week. Also, SW swell of 7 to 8 ft may cross into the region east of 120W reaching as far north as 05N also by mid week. $$ ERA