203 AXPZ20 KNHC 030357 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 11.3N 89.5W at 03/0300 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous strong convection and thunderstorms are from 08N to 16N between 87W and 93W or across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua. Scattered moderate isolted strong convection is also within 90 nm off the coast of Costa Rica. Peak seas are 11 ft. Bonnie is expected to continue moving away from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico for the next several days. Further strengthening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane by Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 12N to 21N with axis near 128W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is centered along the wave near 16N128W. No significant convection is evident along this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N100W to 08N110W to 09N121W. The ITCZ extend from 12N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 12N between 107W and 120W, and from 08N to 14N west of 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie which is forecast to move across the offshore waters off southern Mexico Sun night through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NW winds are along the Baja California offshore waters with 5 to 7 ft seas. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 3 ft dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, except for moderate W to NW winds across the Oaxaca and Chiapas offshores. For the forecast, expect dangerous marine conditions off the coast of southern Mexico from late Sun through mid week as Bonnie moves through the region. Elsewhere, NW moderate to fresh winds along the Baja offshore waters will persist through Thu between high pressure to the west and lower pressure northeast of the area. Seas will build off Baja California Norte in NW swell by Sun night through early Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie currently south of El Salvador and Guatemala. In other areas, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are offshore Ecuador, the Galapagos Islands, Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica with seas to 5 ft in southerly swell. Light to gentle variable winds are off El Salvador and Guatemala. For the forecast, Bonnie will move WNW off the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala through late Sun, reaching 11.6N 91.4W Sun morning, strengthening to a hurricane near 12.4N 94.2W Sun evening, then reaching 13.2N 97.1W Mon morning. Afterward, Bonnie will continue farther west of the area through the middle of next week. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Mon. Looking ahead, farther south, seas will build to 7 to 8 ft in SW swell from Ecuador to Panama by mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie which is forecast to move west of the SW Mexican offshore waters Tue night into Wed. Locally fresh NE to E winds and seas to 7 ft are from 17N to 20N between 128W and 131W associated with a 1010 mb low pressure centered near 16N128W. This low will continue to weaken and eventually dissipate as it continues to move over unfavorable cooler waters. However, winds will continue to diminish in strength and areal coverage tonight and seas will subside. Elsewhere, surface ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ, providing gentle to moderate NE winds north of 20N and west of 123W, and NE to E moderate to fresh winds between the ITCZ and 20N W of 131W. East of 110W over the tropical eastern Pacific, outside of the immediate area of T.S. Bonnie gentle to moderate SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough with 5 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through early next week. Looking ahead, the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of Clarion and Socorro Islands by mid week. Also, SW swell of 7 to 8 ft may cross into the region east of 120W reaching as far north as 05N also by mid week. $$ Ramos