000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 11.3N 88.0W at 02/2100 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous strong thunderstorms are active within 90 nm of the center of Bonnie in the southwest semicircle of the storm. Seas are still 8 to 11 ft in area of strongest winds off the coast of Nicaragua, but will build through the evening as both the duration of the winds and the offshore fetch increase. Bonnie will continue to move off the coast of northern Central America through Sun, then strengthen to a hurricane Sun night as it moves to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Bonnie will maintain hurricane force winds while moving WNW across the Mexican offshore waters, and forecast to reach just south of Socorro Island by mid week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 10N to 20N with axis near 127W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is centered along the wave near 16N127W. No significant convection is evident along this tropical wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N92W to 11N103W to 08N117W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 08N117W to 15N125W, and from 13N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie are observed from 08N to 12N between 87W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 105W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 132W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie which is forecast to move across the offshore waters off southern Mexico Sun night through the middle of next week. Mostly moderate NW winds are along the Baja California offshore waters with 4 to 6 ft seas. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 3 ft dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, expect dangerous marine conditions off the coast of southern Mexico from late Sun through mid week as Bonnie moves through the region. Elsewhere, NW moderate to fresh winds along the Baja offshore waters will persist through late Sat between high pressure to the west and lower pressure northeast of the area. Seas will build off Baja California Norte in NW swell by Sun night through early Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie currently off Nicaragua. In other areas, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are offshore Ecuador, the Galapagos Islands, Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica with seas to 6 ft in southerly swell. Light to gentle variable winds are off El Salvador and Guatemala. For the forecast, Bonnie will move WNW off the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala through late Sun, reaching 11.4N 89.8W Sun morning and 12.0N 92.5W Sun afternoon. Bonnie is expected to strengthen to a hurricane as it moves to the waters off southern Mexico Sun night into early Mon, then continue farther west of the area through the middle of next week. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Mon. Looking ahead, farther south, seas will build to 7 to 8 ft in SW swell from Ecuador to Panama by mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie which is forecast to move west of the SW Mexican offshore waters Wed. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong winds within 60 nm to the north of the 1010 mb low near 16N127W. Seas are still likely reaching 8 ft near the low pressure centered at 16N125W. This low will continue to weaken and eventually dissipate as it continues to move over unfavorable cooler waters. However, winds will diminish in strength and areal coverage tonight, but seas to 8 ft may linger another day near the low pressure. Farther east, the scatterometer pass also indicate fresh winds near a kink in the monsoon trough around 10N105W, where a few thunderstorms are active. Seas are likely reaching 6 to 7 ft in this area. Elsewhere, surface ridging dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ, providing gentle to moderate NE winds north of 20N and west of 125W, and NE to E moderate to fresh winds between the ITCZ and 20N. East of 120W over the tropical eastern Pacific, outside of the immediate area of T.S. Bonnie gentle to moderate SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough with 4 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend into early next week. Looking ahead, the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south of Clarion and Socorro Islands by mid week. Also, SW swell 7 to 8 ft may cross into the region east of 120W reaching as far north as 05N by mid week. $$ Christensen