000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 11.2N 86.4W at 02/1500 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Bonnie will continue to move into the Pacific waters off southern Nicaragua this morning. Bonnie will then strengthen as it moves parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico through Tuesday. Bonnie may reach hurricane strength off the coast of Guerrero early on Tue and maintain hurricane force winds while moving WNW across the remaining SW Mexican offshore waters. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 10N to 20N with axis near 125W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is centered along the wave near 16N125W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm west of the center of the low. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N89W to 11N102W to 08N112W to 09N115W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 09N115W to 14N124W, and from 13N128W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie in the form of rainbands are observed from 08N to 11N east of 88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 07N to 11N between 104W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is note from 09N to 11N between 132W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie which is forecast to move across the offshore waters off southern Mexico Sun night through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NW winds are along the Baja California offshore waters with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 3 ft dominate the remainder region, except for moderate NW winds off the Jalisco coast and moderate to locally fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Bonnie will move to south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 12.5N 93.6W Sun evening. Bonnie will continue to move WNW reaching 13.4N 96.6W Mon morning, 14.3N 99.6W Mon evening, then strengthen to a hurricane near 15.1N 102.5W Tue morning. Bonnie will change little in intensity as it moves to the south of the Socorro Island through mid week. Farther north, seas will build off Baja California Norte in NW swell by Sun night through early Mon. Elsewhere, NW moderate to fresh winds along the Baja offshore waters will persist through late Sat between high pressure to the west and lower pressure northeast of the area. Seas will build off Baja California Norte in NW swell by Sun night through early Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie currently moving into the Pacific waters off southwest Nicaragua and northwest Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are offshore Ecuador, the Galapagos Islands, Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica with seas to 6 ft in southerly swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. For the forecast, Bonnie will move through the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala through Sun, reaching 11.3N 88.3W this evening and 11.7N 90.7W Sun morning. Bonnie will continue to move WNW to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night, then continue farther west of the area through the middle of next week. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Mon. Looking ahead, farther south, seas will build to 7 to 8 ft in SW swell from Ecuador to Panama by mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie which is forecast to move west of the SW Mexican offshore waters Tue night into Wed. Seas are still reaching 8 ft near the low pressure centered at 16N125W. Winds have diminished substantially near this low over the past couple of days as it has moved into unfavorable cooler waters and weakened. However, seas to 8 ft may linger another day near the low pressure. Elsewhere, surface ridging dominates the forecast waters N of the ITCZ, providing gentle to moderate NE winds north of 20N and west of 125W, and NE to E moderate to fresh winds between the ITCZ and 20N. East of 120W over the tropical eastern Pacific, outside of the immediate area of T.S. Bonnie gentle to moderate SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough with 4 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, other than the area of low pressure southwest of southwestern Mexico, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend into early next week. Looking ahead, SW swell 7 to 8 ft may cross into the region east of 120W reaching as far north as 05N by mid week. $$ Christensen