000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020919 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 11.3N 85.1W at 02/0900 UTC or 40 nm NE of Liberia Costa Rica moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Bonnie will move across Lake Nicaragua during the next several hours and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later this morning. Bonnie will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico today through Tuesday. Ongoing weakening is likely to continue during the next several hours while the center of Bonnie crosses Nicaragua. Gradual strengthening is forecast after Bonnie emerges over the eastern Pacific later today and should continue through Tuesday. Afterward, Bonnie may reach hurricane strength off the coast of Guerrero early on Tue and maintain hurricane force winds while moving WNW across the remaining SW Mexican offshore waters. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 12N to 20N with axis near 124W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is centered along the wave. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the low from 14N to 17N between 120W and 126W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 12N between 119W and 127W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N86W to 09N100W to 08N111W then resumes near 10N128W to 07N135W. The ITCZ extends from 07N135W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie in the form of rainbands are already across the offshore waters from El Salvador to Costa Rica or from 06N to 13N between 83W and 94W. Similar convection is from 06N to 12N between 101W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 12N W of 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie which is forecast to move across the offshore waters off southern Mexico Sun night through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NW winds are along the Baja California offshore waters with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 3 ft dominate the remaider region, except for moderate NW winds off the Jalisco coast and moderate to locally fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Bonnie will move across Lake Nicaragua during the next several hours and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later this morning. Bonnie will reach the waters south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night, and strengthen to a hurricane over the Guerrero offshore waters early on Tue. Bonnie will change little in intensity as it moves off the coasts of Colima and Jalisco through Wed. Elsewhere, NW moderate to fresh winds along the Baja offshore waters will further increase to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia by Sat night as low pressure develops over the SW Continental U.S., thus increasing the pressure gradient in the zone. Moderate to fresh NW winds will then prevail along the Baja offshores through Tue next week. Light to gentle winds along the Gulf of California will increase to moderate speeds Sun and then diminish back to gentle speeds on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie which will emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later this morning. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are offshore Ecuador, the Galapagos Islands, Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica with seas to 6 ft in southerly swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. For the forecast, Bonnie will reach 11.3N 87.1W this afternoon, 11.5N 89.4W Sun morning, and 12.0N 91.9W Sun afternoon. Bonnie will continue to move WNW to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night, then continue farther west of the area through the middle of next week. Winds and seas will diminish across the region on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie which is forecast to move west of the SW Mexican offshore waters Tue night into Wed. A small area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 15N124W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft are within 90 nm N semicircle of the low center. Showers and thunderstorms associated with it have largely dissipated. Additional development of this system now appears unlikely as it moves westward over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and within a less conducive atmospheric environment. Otherwise, surface ridging dominates the forecast waters N of the ITCZ, providing gentle to moderate NE winds N of 23N W of 126W and NE to E moderate to fresh winds between the ITCZ and 23N. For the forecast, other than the area of low pressure southwest of southwestern Mexico, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend into early next week. $$ Ramos