000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012211 CCA TWDEP Corrected transmission time and date Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered over the southwest Caribbean Sea near 11.3N 82.5W at 01/2100 UTC, or 90 nm ESE of Bluefields Nicaragua, moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Bonnie will gradually intensify as it continues to move off the coast of northern Central America through Sun, reaching the waters south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night into Mon. Bonnie may reach hurricane strength off the coasts of Guerrero and Michoacan by early Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 15N122W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated 20 to 30 kt winds in the northern semicircle of the center. An earlier altimeter pass showed seas to around 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection persists within 60 nm of the center, but they have been weakening over the past several hours. The system only has about another day to become a short-lived tropical depression before it reaches cooler waters and a dry air mass while it moves westward at 10 kt. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 08N to 20N with axis near 122W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. 1009 mb low pressure is centered along the wave and convection is described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N83W to 08N111W, and from 11N124W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to 07N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 09N to 12N between 99W and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie which is forecast to move across the offshore waters off southern Mexico Sun night through the middle of next week. North of 20N, moderate NW winds persist off Baja California, and gentle breezes south of 20N and in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas are noted in open waters. For the forecast, Bonnie is forecast to cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on early Saturday. Bonnie will intensify and reach the waters south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 12.3N 92.0W Sun afternoon, then continue to 13.2N 94.9W Mon morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 14.1N 97.7W Mon afternoon. Bonnie will change little in intensity as it moves off the coasts of Colima and Jalisco through Tue. Elsewhere, moderate NW winds along the Baja offshore waters will increase to moderate to fresh speeds tonight while extending to Cabo San Lucas. These winds will further increase to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia by Sat night as low pressure develops over the SW Continental U.S., thus increasing the pressure gradient in the zone. Moderate to fresh NW winds will then prevail along the Baja offshores through Tue next week. Light to gentle winds along the Gulf of California will increase to moderate speeds Sun and then diminish back to gentle speeds on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie which is forecast to cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean early Sat. Moderate to fresh winds with seas to 5 ft are occurring in the Papagayo region with enhanced trade wind flow in the SW Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are offshore Ecuador, the Galapagos Islands and portions of Colombia with seas to 7 ft in southerly swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. For the forecast, Bonnie will reach 11.3N 86.9W Sat afternoon, 11.6N 89.4W Sun morning, and 12.3N 92.0W Sun afternoon. Bonnie will continue to move westward to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, then continue farther west of the area through early in the week. Winds and seas will diminish across the region mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. A weak trough, the remnant of Celia, persists from 24N126W to 22N123W. Moderate winds and seas persist across the region outside of the immediate area of the low pressure near 15N122W. For the forecast, other than the area of low pressure southwest of southwestern Mexico, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend into early next week. $$ Christensen