000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011615 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly named Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered over the southwest Caribbean Sea near 11.2N 81.0W at 01/1500 UTC or 170 nm ESE of Bluefields Nicaragua moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Bonnie will gradually intensify as it continues to move off the coast of northern Central America through Sun, reaching the waters south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night into Mon. Bonnie may reach hurricane strength off the coasts of Guerrero and Michoacan by early Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 15N120W. Scattered moderate convection persists within 60 nm in the west quadrant of the low. A recent altimeter satellite pass showed seas near 8 ft in near the low. An earlier scatterometer pass show an elongated circulation with winds below gale force, but environmental conditions are still conducive for development today, and a tropical depression or storm could still form before the system moves WNW over cooler waters by Sat. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 08N to 20N with axis near 120W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. 1009 mb low pressure is centered along the wave and convection is described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N85W. The ITCZ extends from 07N128W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 08N to 12N between 98W and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Potential Tropical Storm Bonnie which is forecast to move across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters Sun night through the middle of next week. Moderate NW winds and seas of 5-6 ft are along the Baja California offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate NW winds are also along the coastal waters from Jalisco to Colima with seas to 4 ft. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh N winds prevail N of 14N with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. For the forecast, other than Atlantic Potential Tropical Storm Bonnie, moderate NW winds along the Baja offshore waters will increase to moderate to fresh speeds tonight while extending to Cabo San Lucas. These winds will further increase to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia by Sat night as low pressure develops over the SW Continental U.S., thus increasing the pressure gradient in the zone. Moderate to fresh NW winds will then prevail along the Baja offshores through Tue next week. Light to gentle winds along the Gulf of California will increase to moderate speeds Sun and then diminish back to gentle speeds on Mon. Otherwise, moderate to fresh N winds will prevail in Tehuantepec, increasing to strong speeds on Sun ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Potential Tropical Storm Bonnie which is forecast to cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Sat with potential impacts to the Pacific offshore waters zones from Nicaragua to El Salvador and Guatemala. Moderate to fresh winds with seas to 6 ft are occurring in the Papagayo region with enhanced trade wind flow in the SW Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are offshore Ecuador, the Galapagos Islands and portions of Colombia with seas to 6 ft in southerly swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. For the forecast, other than Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through tonight with little change elsewhere through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. The remnants of Celia opened into a trough earlier tonight and lack significant convection. The trough extends from 20N125W to 26N124W. Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the forecast waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are generally west of 121W with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, other than the area of low pressure southwest of southwestern Mexico, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend into early next week. $$ Christensen/Ramos