647 AXPZ20 KNHC 010821 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to generate scattered moderate convection from 14N to 18N between 118W and 120W in the vicinity of a 1009 mb low centered near 15N119W. An earlier scatterometer pass show an elongated circulation with winds below gale force while seas fluctuate between 8 to 9 ft. However, environmental conditions are still conducive for development today, and a tropical depression or storm could still form before the system moves WNW at 8-13 kt over cooler waters by the weekend. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. Atlantic basin Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is currently in the SW Caribbean Sea. This system will continue to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday with potential impacts to the Pacific offshore waters zones from Nicaragua to El Salvador and Guatemala, and then the S and SW Mexican offshore waters into early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends N of 05N with axis near 92W, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave extends from 08N to 20N with axis near 117W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure is centered along the wave and convection is described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Papagayo region near 09N85W to 07N97W to 08N107W. The ITCZ extends from 07N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 95W and 103W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two which is forecast to move across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters Sun through early next week. Fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail over Baja California offshore waters with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. For the forecast, other than Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through Fri morning. Winds offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will increase and pulse to moderate to fresh by the end of the week into the weekend, while a moderate NW swell builds across the same area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two which is forecast to move across Nicaragua Fri night into early Sat, and then across the offshore waters of Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala this weekend. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring in the Papagayo region with enhanced trade wind flow in the SW Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are offshore Ecuador and portions of Colombia with seas to 6 ft in southerly swell. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere. For the forecast, other than Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through Fri morning with little change elsewhere through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a low pressure system generating gale force winds centered several hundred nautical miles south southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The remnant 1015 mb low of Celia is located near 23N126W with no deep convection, moderate winds, and seas around 7 ft. Winds will continue to diminish as the remnant low opens into a trough over the next day or two. High pressure dominates the remainder of the forecast waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, other than the area of low pressure southwest of southwestern Mexico, little change in conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend into early next week. $$ Ramos