000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300302 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An 1009 mb low pressure is located several hundred nautical miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico, near 13N111W. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance continues to show signs of organization, but according to satellite-derived surface wind data, the system does not have a well-defined center of circulation. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 108W and 113W. Current winds are 20 to 30 kt with seas of around 8 ft. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt through the end of the week. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered well east of the basin in the south-central Caribbean Sea near 12.0N 77.5W at 29/0300 UTC moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. This system is forecast to approach Central America from the southern Caribbean Sea as a tropical cyclone by the end of the week, moving across Nicaragua Fri night into early Sat, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean this weekend with potential impacts to the Pacific offshore waters zones from Nicaragua to El Salvador and Guatemala, and then to the offshore waters of Mexico offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun into Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W from 04N northward to near the Papagayo region and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 15 kt. Associated convection is over land including NW Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras. A tropical wave is along 112W north of 06N to near the Revillagigedo Islands, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is primarily associated with low pressure described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Panama-Costa Rica border near 08N83W to 08N99W, then resumes from 1009 mb low pressure near 13N111W to 08N123W. The ITCZ extends from 08N123W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 77W and 80W, including the Gulf of Panama, and from 07N to 10N between 92W and 95W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N to 13N between 114W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two which is forecast to move across the offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec waters Sun and Sun night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds prevail for the remainder of the area. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours through the weekend, and again Sat night through Sun. Winds offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will increase and pulse to moderate to fresh by the end of the week into the weekend, while a moderate NW swell builds across the same area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two which is forecast to move across Nicaragua Fri night into early Sat. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds offshore Ecuador. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, except 2 to 4 ft in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, other than Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region through early Fri as the trade wind flow increases across the SW Caribbean. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a small low pressure system centered a few hundred nautical miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. The remnant 1012 mb low of Celia is located near 24N125W with no deep convection, winds moderate to fresh, and seas around 7 ft at most. Winds will continue to diminish tonight as the remnant low gradually opens into a trough over the next day or two. High pressure dominates the remainder of the forecast waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are north of 21N and west of 125W, with moderate NE winds south of 21N and west of 135W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft, except to around 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 100W. For the forecast, other than the area of low pressure southwest of southwestern Mexico, little change is forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky