000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small 1009 mb low pressure system centered a few hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico near 12.5N105.5W continue to show signs of organization. However, recently received satellite wind data suggests the circulation is somewhat less defined than earlier today. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 105W and 108W. Current winds are 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Environmental conditions still appear favorable for additional development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt through the end of the week. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered well east of the basin near 11.3N 65.4W at 29/0900 moving very quickly WNW at 23 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. This system is forecast to approach Central America from the Caribbean Sea by the end of the week, moving across Nicaragua Fri night into early Sat, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean this weekend with potential impacts to the Pacific offshore waters zones from Nicaragua to El Salvador and Guatemala, and then to the offshore waters of Mexico offshore Gulf of Tehauntepec Sun and Sun night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is west of the Pacific coast of Colombia along 79W north of 03N to across Panama and the western Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is mainly over Panama and in the SW Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave is along 107W north of 06N to just southwest of Mexico, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is primarily associated with low pressure described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from across Panama to the coast of Costa Rica near 08N83W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12.5N105.5W to 09N117W. The ITCZ extends from 09N123W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 88W and 91W, and from 06N to 14N between 113W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a small low pressure system centered a few hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two which is forecast to move across the offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec waters Sun and Sun night. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds prevail for the remainder of the area. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, other than the passing area of low pressure, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours through the weekend, fresh to strong tonight through Thu, and again Sat night through Sun. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California and in the Gulf of California by the end of the week into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two which is forecast to move across Nicaragua Fri night into early Sat. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds offshore Ecuador. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, other than Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region through early Fri as the trade wind flow increases across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a small low pressure system centered a few hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. The remnant 1008 mb low of Celia is located near 23.5N123W with no deep convection. Associated winds have likely diminished to 20 kt or less with seas of 7 to 8 ft. Winds and seas are forecast to diminish and subside early this morning with the remnant low gradually opening up to at trough over the next couple of days. High pressure dominates the remainder of the forecast waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are north of 20N and west of 120W, with moderate NE winds south of 22N and west of 125W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft across the open waters outside of the remnants of Celia, except around 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 95W. For the forecast, Celia will continue to weaken to a trough and dissipate by the end of the week. A set of southerly swell will continue to bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the Equator and west of 95W over the next day or two or so before decaying. $$ Lewitsky