000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290253
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small 1009 mb low 
pressure system centered a few hundred nautical miles south of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico near 12N103.5W show signs of 
increased organization. Current associated winds are 20 to 30 kt
with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 102W and 106W. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
additional gradual development during the next couple of days, 
and a tropical depression is likely form while the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt through the end of 
the week. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within 
the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather 
Outlook at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for more details.

Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered well east of
the basin near 10.4N 61.0W at 28/0000 UTC or 10 nm east of 
Trinidad moving W at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 
is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 
45 kt. Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is forecast to 
approach Central America from the Caribbean Sea by the end of the
week, moving across Central America this weekend and then 
emerging in the eastern Pacific Ocean early next week with 
potential impacts to the Pacific offshore waters zones.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Pacific near the coast of
Colombia along 78W north of 04N, moving west at around 20 kt. 
Nearby convection is mainly over Panama and in the SW Caribbean
Sea.

A tropical wave is along 106W north of 06N to just southwest of 
Mexico, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is 
primarily associated with low pressure described in the Special 
Features section above.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 07N83W to low
pressure near 12N103.5W to 08N110W to 11N117W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N124W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 09N between 84W and 90W, and from 06N to 14N
between 106W and 113W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a small
low pressure system centered a few hundred nautical miles south 
of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds prevail for the remainder 
of the area. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters, and 
1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance.

For the forecast, other than the passing area of low pressure,
moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours through the 
weekend, fresh to strong Wed night through Thu, and again Sat 
night through Sun. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh offshore
Baja California and in the Gulf of California by the end of the 
week into the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two which may approach and
move across Central America late this week into the weekend.

Moderate winds are occurring in the Papagayo region as well as
offshore Ecuador, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 
mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, 
locally 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, other than Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone
Two, moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are expected in the
Papagayo region through early Fri as the trade wind flow 
increases across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will 
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to 
moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the 
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a small
low pressure system centered a few hundred nautical miles south 
of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

The 1007 mb remnant low of Celia is located near 23N122W with no
deep convection left. Associated winds are still likely 20 to 30
kt with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Winds and seas are forecast to
diminish and subside late tonight with the remnant low gradually
opening up to at trough over the next couple of days.

High pressure dominates the remainder of the forecast waters
north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are north of 20N and west of 120W, with moderate NE winds
south of 20N and west of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh winds
are south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft across the open waters
outside of the remnants of Celia, except around 8 ft south of the
Equator and west of 95W.

For the forecast, Celia will continue to weaken dissipate by the
end of the week. A set of southerly swell will continue to bring
seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the Equator and 
west of 95W over the next 48 hours or so before decaying.

$$
Lewitsky