000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282102 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Celia has become post-tropical; Post-Tropical Cyclone Celia is centered near 22.6N 121.4W at 28/2100 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Celia. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue through midweek. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia is expected to dissipate by the end of the week. Swells will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula through this evening. These conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure system centered a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico, near 11N101W, are beginning to show signs of organization. Minimum central pressure of this low is 1009 mb, and it is producing scattered moderate convection from 09N to 13N between 99W and 107W. Fresh E winds are occurring N of the center with seas of 6 to 8 ft in the general region. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional gradual development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the week. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 105W north of 06N to just S of Jalisco, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is primarily associated with low pressure described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near the Papagayo region at 10N86W to 1009 mb low pressure near 11N101W to 11N115W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 81W and 109W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A small but well-defined low pressure, depicted in detail in the Special Features Section above, is now west of the regional waters off SW Mexico and is moving away from the area. Still, fresh E winds associated with this low impact waters well offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero this evening, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft, before conditions improve by Wed morning. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds prevail for the remainder of the area. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours into the weekend, fresh to strong Wed night through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will develop offshore Baja California Norte as well as in the central and northern Gulf of California by the end of the week into the weekend. Low pressure may bring increased winds and seas to areas near and SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region through early Fri as the trade wind flow increases across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the next several days. Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will cross the Caribbean this week and may bring increased winds and seas to portions of the Pacific offshore Central America this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Celia and low pressure west of southwest Mexico. High pressure dominates the forecast area north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 130W, and north of 20N between Celia and 130W. Mainly light and variable winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 105W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the open waters outside of Celia, locally 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 95W. For the forecast, Celia will continue to weaken dissipate by the end of the week. A set of southerly swell will continue to bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the Equator and west of 95W over the next 48 hours or so before decaying. $$ KONARIK