000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281532 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 22.3N 120.5W at 28/1500 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Celia. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue through midweek. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. Swells will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula through the day today. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. A small but well-defined area of low pressure is centered a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico, near 12N99W and with a minimum central pressure of 1009 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 99W and 105W. Thunderstorm activity associated with the low has increased during the past several hours but remains somewhat disorganized. Fresh E winds are occurring N of the center with seas of 6 to 8 ft in the general region. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form within the next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 104W north of 06N to southwest Mexico, moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is primarily associated with low pressure described in the Special Features section above. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near the Papagayo region at 10N86W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N99W to 10N110W to 09N118W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 82W and 109W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Celia is now well W of the Baja California Sur offshore waters, and with continued westward motion and weakening, should have no further impact on regional waters aside from rip currents along the coast. Another small but well-defined low pressure area is now west of the waters of SW Mexico, moving W. Fresh E winds N of this low are impacting local waters. See Special Features section above for details on both Celia and the low pressure. In addition, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours into the weekend, fresh to strong Wed night through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will develop offshore Baja California Norte as well as in the central and northern Gulf of California by the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate NW swell may move into the waters off Baja California Norte this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft offshore Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region through early Fri as the trade wind flow increases across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the next several days. Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will cross the Caribbean this week and may have some impact on Pacific waters offshore northern Central America this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia and low pressure west of southwest Mexico. High pressure dominates the forecast area north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 130W, and north of 20N between Celia and 130W. Mainly light and variable winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 105W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the open waters outside of Celia, locally 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 95W. For the forecast, Celia will continue to weaken and become post- tropical this afternoon. A set of southerly swell will continue to bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the Equator and west of 95W over the next 48 hours or so before decaying. $$ KONARIK