000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280841 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Celia is centered near 21.8N 119.6W at 28/0900 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Celia, except within 120 nm in the north quadrant. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue through midweek. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. Swells will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula through the day today. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 102W/103W north of 06N to southwest Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near the Papagayo region at 10N86W to 1009 mb low pressure near 11N98W to 08N105W to 12N116W to 08N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N124W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 90W and 112W, and from 10N to 13N between 96W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 77W and 84W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Celia is west of the offshore waters of Baja California Sur with winds having diminishedto gentle to moderate across the offshore waters there. Seas have also subsided to less than 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as well as to the south of there near a small but well-defined area of low pressure which is beginning to shift beyond the offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours into the weekend, fresh to strong Wed night through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will develop offshore Baja California Norte as well as in the central and northern Gulf of California by the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate NW swell may move into the waters off Baja California Norte this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft offshore Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region through early Fri as the trade wind flow increases across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Celia. High pressure dominates the forecast area north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 130W, and north of 20N between Celia and 130W. Mainly light and variable winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and west of 105W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the open waters outside of Celia, locally 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 95W. For the forecast, Celia will continue to weaken and become post- tropical this afternoon. A small but well-defined 1009 mb area of low pressure located a few hundred nautical miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity mainly north and west of the center. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. A set of southerly swell will continue to bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the Equator and west of 95W over the next 48 hours or so before decaying. $$ Lewitsky