000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280254 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 21.3N 118.8W at 28/0300 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the northwest quadrant of Celia. Outer fresh to strong winds still extend into the outer portions of zones PMZ013 and PMZ015 offshore Baja California Sur, but will diminish through the evening. Likewise, outer seas of 7-11 ft currently extend into the same zones but will subside through the night as Celia continues to move west away from the zones. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue through midweek. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tue. Swells will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula through Tuesday. These conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 101W north of 06N to southern Mexico, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N97W to 08N105W to 12N117W to 08N126W. The ITCZ extends from 08N126W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 91W and 112W, and from 10N to 13N between 97W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 77W and 84W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Celia, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the waters outside of Celia. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the waters outside of Celia, except 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours into the weekend, fresh to strong Wed night through Thu. A tropical wave will move across the waters south of Mexico through mid-week with the potential for increasing winds and seas with it. Moderate to fresh winds will develop offshore Baja California Norte as well as in the central and northern Gulf of California by the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate NW swell may move into the waters off Baja California Norte this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring offshore Guatemala and El Salvador in the wake of a tropical wave, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft southwest of the Galapagos Islands as well as in the wake of the tropical wave. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore Guatemala and El Salvador will shift west of the area this evening. Moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through early Fri as the trade wind flow increases across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Celia, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. High pressure dominates the forecast area north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. Mainly light and variable winds are observed under the influence of this high north of 22N and west of 132W, along with seas of 4 to 5 ft primarily in northerly swell. Gentle winds are found from 05N to 12N between 105W and 130W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere, along with 4 to 7 ft seas, locally 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 95W. For the forecast, other than the gradually weakening Celia, a ridge will persist across the forecast area north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 125W through Wed, then ridging will build from across the offshore waters of Baja California as Celia dissipates. A set of southerly swell will continue to bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the Equator and west of 95W over the next 48 hours or so. Broad low pressure forming well south of Mexico currently will move west and have a low potential of tropical development later this week. $$ Lewitsky