000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272101 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jun 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 20.9N 118.0W at 27/2100 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 19N to 23N between 114W and 119W. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a post- tropical cyclone within the next couple of days. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next couple of days. These conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 100W north of 04N to Guerrero, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 97W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Papagayo region at 10N85W to 09N108W to 08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 78W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the waters outside of Celia. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the waters outside of Celia, except 2 to 4 ft in the central and northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater west of Los Cabos will subside tonight. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours into the weekend. A tropical wave will move across the waters south of Mexico through mid-week with the potential for increasing winds and seas with it. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are occurring offshore Guatemala and El Salvador in the wake of a tropical wave, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands as well as in the wake of the tropical wave. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore Guatemala and El Salvador will shift west of the area this evening. Moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through early Fri as the trade wind flow increases across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. High pressure dominates the forecast area north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. Mainly light and variable winds are observed under the influence of this high north of 23N and west of 130W, along with seas of 4 to 5 ft in northerly swell. Gentle winds are found from 04N to 11N between 100W and 130W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere, along with 4 to 7 ft seas, locally 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 95W. For the forecast, other than the gradually weakening Celia, a ridge will persist across the forecast area north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 125W through at least the middle of the week, then ridging will build from across the offshore waters of Baja California as Celia dissipates. A set of southerly swell will bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the Equator and west of 95W over the next 48 hours. Broad low pressure forming well S of Mexico currently will move west and have a low potential of tropical development later this week. $$ KONARIK