000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270902
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jun 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 20.4N 116.0W at 27/0900
UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 21N between 
113W and 119W. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and 
this general motion is expected to continue over the next few 
days. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Celia is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone within the next couple of days.
Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of
west-central Mexico during the next couple of days. These 
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 97W north of 04N to southern Mexico just
west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving west at around 10 kt. 
Nearby convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near the Papagayo region at
11N86W to 11N110W to 10N120W to 08N127W. The ITCZ extends from
08N127W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 77W and 90W, from 05N
to 16N between 100W and 110W, and from 04N to 13N between 112W
and 121W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N
between 137W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of
the waters outside of Celia, locally fresh in the Gulf of
California north of 28N. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the waters 
outside of Celia, except 2 to 4 ft in the central and northern 
Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater will begin to subside 
between Los Cabos and The Marias Islands, as well as to the 
entrance to the Gulf of California early today, and continue to 
propagate across the offshore waters of southern Baja California 
through the remainder of today. As Celia moves away from the 
offshore forecast waters by tonight, seas will continue to 
subside across the region. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early 
morning hours through the week. A tropical wave will move across
the waters south of Mexico through mid-week with the potential 
for increasing winds and seas with it.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to locally winds are occurring offshore Guatemala and El
Salvador in the wake of a tropical wave, with mainly gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the 
offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft south of the
Galapagos Islands as well as in the wake of the tropical wave.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds offshore Guatemala
and El Salvador will shift west of the area by this evening. 
Moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf
of Papagayo through early Fri as the trade wind flow increases 
across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate 
southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

High pressure dominates the forecast area north of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough and west of Celia. Mainly light and variable winds
are observed under the influence of this high north of 22N and 
west of 128W, along with seas of 4 to 5 ft in northerly swell. 
Gentle winds are found from 04N to 11N between 100W and 130W.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere, along with 4 to 7
ft seas, locally 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 95W.

For the forecast, other than the gradually weakening Celia, a 
ridge will persist across the forecast area north of the ITCZ 
and monsoon trough and west of 125W through at least the middle 
of the week, then ridging will build from across the offshore 
waters of Baja California as Celia dissipates. A set of southerly
swell will bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of 
the Equator and west of 95W over the next 48 hours.

$$
Lewitsky