000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262126
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 19.5N 114.0W at 26/2100
UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft. Numerous moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm SE semicircle.
Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next 
few days. Weakening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a 
post-tropical cyclone within the next couple of days. Swells will 
affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern
Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico 
during the next few days. These conditions could cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from 
your local weather office.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 92W N of 04N, moving west at around 10 
kt. The wave axis is located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and crosses near the Guatemala/Mexico
border. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen 
ahead of the wave from 10N to 14N between 92W and 96W. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual 
development of this system while it moves generally westward- 
northwestward during the next several days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N98W to 11N102W, 
then continues south of Celia from 12N116W to 08N127W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 05N to 10N E of 86W, from 05N to 10N 
between 100W and 107W, and from 05N to 08N W of 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 

Elsewhere, the most recent scatterometer data show gentle to
moderate NW-N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California
N of Cabo San Lazaro. An area of fresh to locally strong SE 
winds is noted within about 45 nm just E of Espiritu Santo Island
in the southern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh winds E to
SE winds are near Cabo San Lucas in the outer periphery of 
Celia. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters. Outside of Celia, seas are 4 to 7 ft, 
except 2 to 4 ft in the central and northern Gulf of California. 
A recent altimeter pass indicates seas of 8 ft reaching Cabo San 
Lazaro. seas of 8 to 9 ft are affecting the coastal waters of Los
Cabos. 

For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater will begin to subside
between Los Cabos and The Marias Islands, as well as to the 
entrance to the Gulf of California tonight, and continue to 
propagate across the offshore waters of southern Baja California 
tonight and Mon. As Celia moves away from the offshore forecast 
waters by Mon night, seas will continue to subside across the 
region. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours through the
week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, with gentle
to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the 
offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft offshore 
Ecuador.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in
the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night through Fri as the trade wind flow
increases across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will 
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to 
moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the 
week. Seas may build to 7 or 8 ft in SW swell across the offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Mon and Mon night. Seas will
not vary much elsewhere through the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

High pressure of 1021 mb located near 28N133W dominates the
forecast area N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 
Celia. Mainly light and variable winds are observed under the 
influence of this system N of 20N and W of 125W. Moderate trades
are N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to about 15N. Moderate to 
locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail south
of the monsoon trough, locally 8 ft S of the equator and west of
105W.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist across the forecast area 
W of 125W and N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough through at least
the middle of the week, when the ridge will build again across
the offshore waters of Baja California. A new set of SW swell 
will bring seas of 8-9 ft across the waters S of the equator and 
W of 100W over the next 48 hours.

$$
GR