000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261542 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 19.1N 113.7W at 26/1500 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 19 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm SE semicircle. Similar convection is elsewehre from 17N to 19N between 112W and 115W, and from 19N to 21N between 111W and 113W. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest, and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days. Weakening is forecast and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W N of 04N and extends northward to across Guatemala, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen N of 09N between 90W and 95W. Part of this convective activity is affecting the Tehuantepec region. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 09N91W to 11N101W, then continues south of Celia from 12N115W to 07N127W. The ITCZ continues from 07N127W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 80W and 110W. Similar convection is from 05N to 08N W of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are noted offshore Baja California Norte, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Outside of Celia, seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the central and northern Gulf of California. A recent altimeter pass indicates seas of 8 ft reaching Cabo San Lazaro. For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater will continue to propagate across the waters between Los Cabos and The Marias Islands, as well as to the entrance to the Gulf of California today. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours through the week. A trough of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system thereafter as it moves generally westward-northwestward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft offshore Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Papagayo region will gradually shift west-northwest with a passing tropical wave through the early part of the week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the upcoming week. Seas will not vary much through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. A surface ridge extends from well north of the area to across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. A 1019 mb high pressure remains over the NW forecast region near 26N134W. Mainly light winds are observed under the influence of the ridge N of 20N and W of 125W while gentle to moderate N to NE winds are along the southern periphery of the ridge and north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough, locally 8 ft S of the equator and west of 105W. For the forecast, a ridge will persist across the forecast area W of 125W and N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough through at least the middle of the week, when the ridge will build again across the offshore waters of Baja California. A new set of SW swell will bring seas of 8-9 ft across the waters S of the equator and W of 100W over the next 48 hours. $$ GR