000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260840 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 19.3N 113.1W at 26/0900 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 19 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewehre from 17N to 21N between 110W and 116W, and from 12N to 21N between 105W and 110W. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days. Weakening is forecast and Celia is expected to become a post- tropical cyclone Mon afternoon. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W from northeast of the Galapagos Islands northward to across El Salvador and Guatemala, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Papagayo region at 10N86W to 09N90W to 11N97W, then continues south of Celia from 12N112W to 07N127W. The ITCZ extends from 07N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 83W and 94W, and from 05N to 11N between 100W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 77W and 80W, and from 05N to 07N between 130W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia, located a few hundred nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are noted offshore Baja California Norte, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable winds are across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Outside of Celia, seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the central and northern Gulf of California. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, while overnight satellite imagery indicates areas of fog along and offshore of Baja California Norte. For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater will continue to propagate across the waters between Los Cabos and The Marias Islands, as well as to the entrance to the Gulf of California through the remainder of the weekend. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning hours through the upcoming week. A trough of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the southern coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves generally west-northwestward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft offshore Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Papagayo region will gradually shift west-northwest with a passing tropical wave through the early part of the week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the upcoming week. Seas will not vary much through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia, located a few hundred nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. A surface trough is analyzed southwest of Celia from 16N125W to 13N115W with scattered showers near it. High pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed over the northwest waters near 29N134W. Mainly light to gentle winds are observed under the influence of the ridge north of 20N and west of 126W, while gentle to moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft north of 10N and west of 120W in northerly swell. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough, locally 8 ft S of the equator and west of 95W. For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure will persist across the forecast area north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia through the early part of the upcoming week. A set of southerly swell will bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the Equator and west of 100W over the next 48 hours. $$ Lewitsky