000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260238 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 19.1N 112.6W at 26/0300 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 21 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center as well as from 17N to 19N between 111W and 116W. Another band of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted between 210 and 450 nm in the east and southeast quadrants. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days. Weakening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 89W from northwest of the Galapagos Islands northward to across El Salvador into Belize, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Papagayo region at 10N86W to 08N102W to 15N105W, then continues south of Celia from 13N109W to 08N127W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to 09N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 83W and 108W, and from 05N to 07N between 129W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia, located a few hundred nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are noted offshore Baja California Norte, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds in the southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable winds are across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Outside of Celia, seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the central and northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater will continue to propagate across the waters between Los Cabos and The Marias Islands, as well as to the entrance to the Gulf of California through the remainder of the weekend. A trough of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the southern coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves generally west- northwestward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, with gentle to locally moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft offshore Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are expected across the Papagayo region tonight into early Sun, gradually shifting west-northwest with a passing tropical wave into early next week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the upcoming week. Seas will not vary much through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia, located a few hundred nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. A surface ridge extends across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. Mainly light to gentle winds are observed under the influence of the ridge north of 20N and west of 127W, while gentle to moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft north of 10N and west of 120W in northerly swell. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough, locally 8 ft S of the equator and west of 100W. For the forecast, a ridge will persist across the forecast area north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia through the early part of the upcoming week. A new set of SW swell will bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of the Equator and west of 100W over the next 48 hours. $$ Lewitsky