000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252116 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jun 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 18.6N 111.6W at 25/2100 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 20 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of center. Similar convection is seen elsewhere from 12N to 16N between 107W and 112W, and from 16N to 21N between 107W and 110W. The latter convection is associated with a band within the eastern and southeastern parts of the circulation. Celia is moving away from the Socorro Island in a west-northwest track, and this general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Celia is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday night or Tuesday. Swells, generated by Celia, will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west- central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W N of 04N, moving west at around 10 kt. The wave axis extends northward over northern central America. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 08N to 12N between 85W and 89W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N95W to 10N102W, then continues south of Celia from 12N112W to 08N120W to 08N135W. The ITCZ extends from 08N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 94W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 82W and 86W, and from 06N to 09N between 120W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle NW-N winds are noted per scatterometer data across the offshore waters of Baja California N of Todos Santos. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are in the southern Gulf of California. Outside of Celia, seas are 4-6 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro, and 3 to 5 ft in the central and southern parts of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater will continue to propagate across the waters between Los Cabos and The Marias Islands, reaching the entrance to the Gulf of California later this afternoon into the evening hours. A trough of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the southern coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves generally west- northwestward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region and south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in SW swell, locally 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are expected across the Papagayo region tonight into early morning on Sun. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Mainly moderate southerly winds will dominate the waters south of the monsoon trough through the next several days. Seas will not vary much through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. A surface ridge extends from well north of the area to across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. A 1019 mb high pressure has developed over the NW forecast region near 24N132W. Mainly light winds are observed under the influence of the ridge N of 20N and W of 122W while gentle to moderate N to NE winds are along the southern periphery of the ridge and north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough, locally 8 ft S of the equator and west of 110W. For the forecast, a ridge will persist across the forecast area W of 125W and N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough through early next week. A new set of SW swell will bring seas of 8-9 ft across the waters S of the equator and W of 100W over the next 48 hours. $$ GR