000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251544 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jun 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 18.5N 110.8W at 25/1500 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 21 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm S semicircle. Similar convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 15N between 110W and 113W, and from 15N to 21N between 106W and 110W. The center of Celia is approaching Socorro Island. A west- northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Gradual weakening is expected during the next several days, and Celia is likely to become a post- tropical remnant low by Monday night or Tuesday. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W. The wave axis crosses over Honduras and Nicaragua to near the Gulf of Papagayo to 04N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 06n to 12n between 80W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N96W to 08N95W to 11N101W, then continues south of Celia from 12N110W to 08N120W to 08N135W. The ITCZ extends from 08N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 94W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 120W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are noted from Punta Eugenia northward offshore Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, except moderate southerly winds in the southern Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft outside of Celia and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, seas 8 ft or greater generated by Celia will continue to propagate across the waters between Los Cabos and The Marias Islands today, reaching the entrance to the Gulf of California later this afternoon into the evening hours. By early next week, conditions will become quite in the wake of Celia, except offshore of Chiapas and Oaxaca where another area of low pressure could impact the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region and south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in SW swell, locally 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are expected to continue through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Mainly moderate southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the next several days, locally fresh through early today. Seas will not vary much through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia. A surface ridge extends from well north of the area to across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, along with seas of 5 to 6 ft primarily in northerly swell. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough, locally 8 ft near 03.4S west of 110W. For the forecast, the ridge will weaken as Celia continues west- northwestward, while gentle to moderate winds persist outside of the area impacted by Celia through the weekend. A set of mainly SE swell with seas around 8 ft will spread from 03.4S to the Equator by early next week, gradually decaying by mid-week. $$ GR