000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250243 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jun 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 17.8N 109.6W at 25/0300 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 23 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 23N106W to 20N100W to 10N100W to 05N120W to 08N122W to 13N111W to 18N113W to 23N106W. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest, and this direction is forecast to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed through early next week. Some slight additional strengthening is possible over the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening beginning on Sun. Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico on Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W from the western Caribbean Sea southward across Nicaragua and western Costa Rica to 03N, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N94W to 14.5N99W, then continues southwest of Celia from 12N110W to 08N120W to 09N128W. The ITCZ extends from 09N128W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 77W and 88W, and from 05N to 08N between 88W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 131W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are noted from Punta Eugenia northward offshore Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft outside of Celia and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, large swell from Celia will continue to impact the southern Mexican offshore waters, gradually spreading northward through the entrance of the Gulf of California tonight. This swell will reach the west coast of Baja California Sur tonight into early Sat. Early next week, conditions will become quite quiet in the wake of Celia, except offshore of Chiapas and Oaxaca where another area of low pressure could impact the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region and south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in SW swell, locally 7 ft offshore Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from offshore Colombia to offshore Papagayo. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are expected to continue through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Mainly moderate southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the next several days, locally fresh through early Sat. Seas will not vary much through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia. A surface ridge extends from well north of the area to across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, along with seas of 5 to 6 ft primarily in northerly swell. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough, locally 8 ft near 03.4S west of 105W. For the forecast, the ridge will weaken while gentle to moderate winds persist outside of the area impacted by Celia through the weekend. A set of mainly SE swell with seas around 8 ft will spread to the Equator by early next week, gradually decaying by mid-week. $$ Lewitsky