521 AXPZ20 KNHC 242136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 17.2N 108.9W at 24/2100 UTC moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently around 25 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the east semicircle and within 90 nm in the west semicircle of Celia. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 07N to 22N between 99W and 110W. Celia is forecast to slow down later today and tonight but then gradually accelerate on a west- northwestward course late Saturday into Monday. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Celia could become a hurricane tonight or on Saturday. Weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday. Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico today and Saturday. These conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 83W from the western Caribbean Sea southward across western Panama to northwest of the coast of Ecuador, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N98W, then continues SW of Celia from 13N110W to 09N128W. The ITCZ extends from 09N128W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 110W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 05N to 09N and E of 97W, and from 06N to 09N and W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia. Elsewhere, moderate northerly gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are noted offshore Baja California, strongest near and north of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, locally moderate in the central and southern Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 7 ft outside of Celia and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, large swell from Celia will continue to impact the southern Mexican offshore waters, gradually spreading northward toward the entrance of the Gulf of California tonight. This swell should enter the southern Gulf of California and reach the west coast of Baja California Sur by Sat night. Early next week, conditions will become quite quiet in the wake of Celia, except offshore of Chiapas and Oaxaca where another area of low pressure could impact the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region and south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from offshore Colombia to offshore El Salvador. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are expected to continue through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Mainly moderate southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the next several days, locally fresh through early Sat. Seas will not vary much through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia. Surface ridge extends from well north of the area to across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough, locally 8 ft near 03.4S W of 110W. For the forecast, the ridge will weaken while gentle to moderate winds persist outside of the area impacted by Celia through the weekend. A large SE swell will reach our southern border W of 100W Sat night and likely persist through at least Tue. $$ ERA