000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240841 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 17.0N 108.4W at 24/0900 UTC moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 19 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the east semicircle and within 60 nm in the west semicircle of Celia. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 23N107W to 16.5N99W to 12N99W to 07N105W to 08N119W to 12.5N108.5W to 17N111W to 23N107W. Celia is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane Sat morning, then weaken back to a tropical storm Sun morning, with continued weakening thereafter. Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico today and Sat. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 82W from the western Caribbean Sea southward across western Panama to northwest of the coast of Ecuador, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N75W to across Costa Rica to 09N88W to 07N93W to 15N101W, then continues south of Celia from 12N108W to 08N125W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N125W to 09N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 80W, from 04N to 13N between 82W and 89W, and from 05N to 07N between 94W and 96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia. Elsewhere, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Tehuantepec per recent ASCAT scatterometer data due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 6 to 8 ft there. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are noted offshore Baja California, strongest near and north of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, locally moderate in the central and southern Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 7 ft outside of Celia and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, large swell from Celia will continue to impact the southern Mexican offshore waters, gradually spreading northward toward the entrance of the Gulf of California today. This swell should enter the southern Gulf of California and reach the west coast of Baja California Sur by Sat night. Fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will gradually diminish later this morning. Early next week, conditions will become quite quiet in the wake of Celia, except offshore of Chiapas and Oaxaca where another area of low pressure could impact the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in S to SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible from offshore Colombia to offshore El Salvador. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are expected to continue through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Mainly moderate southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the next several days, locally fresh through early Sat. Seas will not vary much through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia. A ridge of high pressure extends from well north of the area to across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except 7 to 8 ft in N to NE swell north of 28N and west of 130W. Mainly moderate southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough, locally 8 ft near 03.4S west of 110W. For the forecast, the ridge will weaken somewhat while gentle to moderate winds persist outside of the area impacted by Celia through the weekend. The northerly swell impacting the northern waters will decay and subside later this morning. A large SE swell will reach our southern border west of 100W Sat night and likely persist through at least Tue. $$ Lewitsky