000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240307 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jun 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 16.7N 107.6W at 24/0300 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 19N108W to 17N101W to 10N102W to 08N111W to 10N116W to 19N108W. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next few days. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Celia could become a hurricane late Fri or Sat. The storm is expected to start weakening by Sun. Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico on Friday and Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave is mainly just north of the eastern tropical Pacific along 80W from near central Panama northward into the western Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the next section below. The tropical wave that was previously analyzed near 100W has become ill-defined and absorbed into the outer circulation of Celia. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N75W to across Costa Rica to 10N86W near the Gulf of Papagayo to 07N93W to 14N101W, then continues southwest of Celia from 11N111W to 08N124W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N124W to 09N129W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 77W and 91W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia currently located about Elsewhere, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely due to higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 6 to 7 ft there. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are noted offshore Baja California, strongest near and north of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft west of Celia, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, large swell from Celia will continue to impact the southern Mexican offshore waters through tonight, then gradually spread northward toward the entrance of the Gulf of California Fri morning. This swell should enter the southern Gulf of California and reach the west coast of Baja California Sur by Sat night. Fresh to strong N winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this evening, then gradually diminish late tonight into Fri morning. Early next week, conditions will become quite quiet in the wake of Celia, except offshore of Chiapas and Oaxaca where another area of low pressure could impact the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore waters in S to SW swell, locally 7 ft in the outer waters from Costa Rica to Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are expected to continue through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Mainly moderate southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the next several days, locally fresh through early Sat. Seas will not vary much through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia currently located about A ridge of high pressure extends from well north of the area to across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of Celia. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except 7 to 9 ft north of 28N and west of 130W in N to NE swell. Mainly moderate southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the ridge will weaken somewhat while gentle to moderate winds persist outside of the area impacted by Celia through the weekend. The northerly swell impacting the northern waters will decay and subside by Fri morning. A large SE swell will reach our southern border west of 100W Sat night and likely persist through at least Tue. $$ Lewitsky