000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232208 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jun 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 16.4N 106.8W at 23/2100 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present up to 120 NM N and W of the center. A turn toward the west- northwest will continue this evening, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed on Friday and Saturday. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia could still become a hurricane by the weekend. Seas are expected to peak near 27 ft late Sat and early Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 100W north of 03N to southern Mexico. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-11N between 99W-103W. A new tropical wave has entered the eastern North Pacific with an axis along 79W extending north of 02N, over Panama, and into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection exists north of 04N east of 82W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 10N97W with a break for Tropical Storm Celia. The monsoon trough reforms at 11N110W and extends to 07N128W.The ITCZ extends from 07N128W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N east of 94W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia currently located about 200 NW SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. East of Celia, fresh to strong N gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely due higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds and seas are quiescent. For the forecast, large swell from Celia will continue to impact the southern Mexican offshore waters through tonight, then gradually spread northward toward the entrance of the Gulf of California Fri morning. This swell should enter the S Gulf of California and reach the west coast of Baja California Sur by Sat night. Fresh to strong N winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this evening, then gradually diminish late tonight into Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region and fresh to strong SW winds south of the monsoon trough are occurring south of 08N. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are expected to continue through the weekend. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Central American offshore waters north of 08N through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will continue south of the monsoon trough along 08N through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1028 mb high is centered near 42N135W offshore of California. The modest pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the south is producing gentle to moderate N to NE trades across the waters. South of the monsoon trough, SE winds veering to SW are also gentle to moderate. The remnant low of Blas still is apparent as a 1011 mb low at 18N118W, though there are no significant winds or seas in association with it. North of 27N and west of 130W, seas are 8-9 ft in NE swell. Elsewhere aside from the vicinity of Celia, seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, as the ridge continues to weaken, mostly gentle to moderate winds will persist outside of the area impacted by Celia through the weekend. The northwest swell impacting the waters north of 27N will decay as it propagates westward to 140W and subside by Fri morning. A large SE swell will reach our southern border west of 100W Sat night and likely persist through at least Tue. $$ Chan/Landsea