000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 16.0N 106.0W at 23/1500 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Peak seas are 16 ft. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present within 300 NM of the center. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed on Friday and Saturday. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia could still become a hurricane by the weekend. Seas are expected to peak near 25 ft late Sat and early Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 99W north of 03N to southern Mexico. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-17N between 98W-1034W. A new tropical wave has entered the eastern North Pacific with an axis along 78W extending north of 02N, over Central America, and into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered modedrate convection exists north of 03N east of 80W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N97W with a break for Tropical Storm Celia. The monsoon trough reforms at 12N112W and extends to 07N130W.The ITCZ extends from 07N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N east of 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia currently located about 200 NW SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. East of Celia, fresh to strong N gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely due higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds and seas are quiescent. For the forecast, swells from Celia will gradually spread northward along the entrance of the Gulf of California today, into the S Gulf of California tomorrow, and along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Sat. Fresh to strong N winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region today, then gradually diminish tonight into Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region and fresh to strong SW winds south of the monsoon trough are occurring south of 08N. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are expected to continue through the weekend. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Central American offshore waters north of 08N through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will continue south of the monsoon trough along 08N through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure centered near 40N139W southeastward to about 20N131W. Swell in excess of 8 ft is impacting the waters north of 26N and west of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the northern forecast waters along the perimeter of the ridge, N of 28N and W of 132W. Moderate trade winds are evident into the deep tropics from 08N to 14N west of 135W related to a weak trough that dissipated near 140W. The remnant low of Blas is centered near 18N118W, with an estimated pressure of 1011 mb and no shower or thunderstorm activity near the center. Farther south, SW swell to 8 ft is beginning to decay, reaching 01S. Elsewhere, outside of the immediate area of Celia, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist. For the forecast, as the ridge continues to weaken, mostly gentle to moderate winds will persist outside of the area impacted by Celia through the weekend. The northwest swell impacting the waters north of 28N will decay as it propagates westward to 140W and subside by Fri morning. Long- period primarily southwest swell just south of the Equator will subside later today. $$ Chan/Landsea/Reinhart