000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230947 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jun 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 15.5N 105.2W at 23/0900 UTC and moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of the center from 15N to 22N between 100W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the center from 12N to 16N between 103W and 109W. Celia is expected to move west- northwestward later today and continue in that direction for the next few days. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Celia could become a hurricane by late Friday. Seas will continue to build over the next few days, with seas reaching around 25 ft on Fri. Seas will peak near 27 ft by late Sat night into Sun when the center of Celia is WSW of Baja California Sur. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 99W north of 03N to southern Mexico. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 09N to 16N between 97W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N114W to 07N128W. The ITCZ extends from 07N128W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 115W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia currently located about 285 nm S of Manzanillo, Mexico. East of Celia, fresh to strong N gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely due to a slight tighter pressure gradient as higher pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted N of Punta Eugenia. Otherwise, Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere across Mexican offshore waters outside of a 240 nm radii of Celia. For the forecast, swells from Celia will continue to spread northward along the southwestern coast of Mexico today. The swells will move into the southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later today into tonight and continue well into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region today then gradually diminish tonight into Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds persist across the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are noted across portions of the Guatemala/El Salvador offshores and along the Costa Rica/Panama coastline. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds continue across the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also noted off the SW Colombian coast and the Costa Rica/Panama offshore waters. Seas are 4-6 ft across the area within southerly swell. For the forecast, the fresh winds across the Gulf of Papagayo are expected to become moderate to locally fresh today and continue through the weekend. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Central American offshore waters N of 08N through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue S of 08N through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure centered near 40N139W southeastward to about 20N131W. Swell in excess of 8 ft is impacting the waters north of 26N and west of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the northern forecast waters along the perimeter of the ridge, N of 28N and W of 132W. Moderate trade winds are evident into the deep tropics from 08N to 14N west of 135W related to a weak trough that dissipated near 140W. The remnant low of Blas is centered near 18N118W, with an estimated pressure of 1011 mb and no shower or thunderstorm activity near the center. Farther south, SW swell to 8 ft is beginning to decay, reaching 01S. Elsewhere, outside of the immediate area of Celia, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist. For the forecast, as the ridge continues to weaken, mostly gentle to moderate winds will persist outside of the area impacted by Celia through the weekend. The northwest swell impacting the waters north of 28N will decay as it propagates westward to 140W and subside by Fri morning. Long- period primarily southwest swell just south of the Equator will subside later today. $$ AReinhart