000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230408 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 14.2N 104.4W at 23/0300 UTC and moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted near and west of the center from 11N to 14N between 103W and 107W. Peak seas are currently 17 ft. Celia is expected to resume moving west- northwestward on Thursday, with that general motion continuing for the next several days. Strengthening is expected, and Celia could become a hurricane Thursday night or Friday. Seas will continue to build over the next few days, with seas reaching around 25 ft on Fri and peak near 27 ft by Sun when the center of Celia is WSW of Baja California Sur. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 97W north of 03N to the southwest Bay of Campeche. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 10N to 16N between 94W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N94W and then resumes near 09N114W to 07N128W. The ITCZ extends from 07N128W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 115W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Celia currently located about 285 nm S of Manzanillo, Mexico. East of Celia, fresh to strong N gap winds are initiating into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely due to a slight tighter pressure gradient as higher pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere across Mexican offshore waters outside of a 240 nm radii of Celia. For the forecast, swells will continue to spread northward along the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight. The swells will reach the southern portions of the Baja California peninsula by Thu into Thu night and continue well into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region tonight then gradually diminish through Thu night into Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds persist across the Gulf of Papagayo. Outside of that, light to gentle winds are noted across portions of the Guatemala/El Salvador offshores and along the Costa Rica/Panama coastline. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also noted off the SW Colombian coast and the Costa Rica/Panama offshore waters. Seas are 4-6 ft across the area within southerly swell. For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to fresh tonight and become moderate into early next week. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Central American offshore waters N of 08N through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue S of 08N through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure centered near 41N140W southeastward to about 20N125W. Swell in excess of 8 ft in impacting the waters north of 27N and west of 130W. The remnant low of Blas is centered near 19N118W, with an estimated pressure of 1011 mb and no shower or thunderstorm activity near the center. Moderate to locally trade winds are evident into the deep tropics from 10N to 14N west of 135W related to a weak trough that has recently dissipated near 140W. An earlier altimeter pass indicted seas near 8 ft near 09N140W in this area. Farther south, SW swell to 8 ft is moving across the equator and reaching as far north as 00N. Elsewhere, outside of the immediate area of Celia, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist. For the forecast, mostly gentle to moderate winds will persist outside of the area impacted by Celia as the ridge to the north weakens. The northwest swell impacting the waters north of 28N will decay as it propagates westward to 140W and subside by Fri morning. Long- period primarily southwest swell just south of the Equator will subside overnight into Thu morning. $$ AReinhart