000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 13.7N 103.7W at 22/1500 UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Northeast winds aloft are keeping numerous strong convection within 180 nm in the southwest semicircle of the center of Celia. Seas are peaking at 14 ft. Celia should maintain a general west-northwestward heading through Monday. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Celia is likely to become a hurricane in the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 95W north of 08N to the southern Bay of Campeche. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 08N to 16N between 95W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Segments the monsoon trough extend from 10N85W to 11N95W, and from 14N115W to 08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 85W and 87W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia currently located about 310 nm south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Outside of Celia, gentle northwest to north winds are noted off the Baja California offshores. Moderate winds are noted on the tip of Baja California Sur. Light to gentle winds are noted across the Gulf of California and throughout the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. Northwest swell is propagating through the extreme northern Baja California offshore waters, producing seas to 6 ft. Seas ranging 4-6 ft are noted across the rest of the Baja California offshores. Outside of Celia, seas range 4-6 ft across the southern Mexico offshore waters and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Numerous strong convection is impacting the coastline of southwest Mexico off Jalisco, near Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, swells will increase along the southwestern coast of Mexico today and spread northward along the coast through Thu, reaching the southern portions of the Baja California peninsula by Thu and into Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are expected to develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late tonight then gradually diminish through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. Outside of that, light to gentle winds are noted across the Central American and Colombian offshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters. Seas are 4-6 ft across the area within southerly swell. For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to fresh through Thu and become moderate into early next week. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Central American offshore waters north of 09N through the rest of the week. Moderate winds will lift northward later today into the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. Expect moderate to locally fresh winds continuing south of 09N through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure centered near 41N140W southeastward to about 20N120W. Swell in excess of 8 ft in impacting the waters north of 28N and west of 135W currently. The remnant low of Blas is centered near 19N117W, with an estimated pressure of 1010 mb and no shower or thunderstorm activity near the center. Fresh trade winds are evident into the deep tropics from 10N to 12N west of 135W, with seas reaching 8 ft in this area. SW swell to 8 ft is moving across the equator and reaching as far north as 02N. Elsewhere, outside of the immediate area of Celia, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist. For the forecast, the ridge is expected to begin weakening today. Winds will diminish across the southern periphery of the high, and light to gentle winds will prevail across the region into the weekend. The northwest swell impacting the northeastern forecast waters will propagate westward over the next few days to 140W and subside by Fri morning. The northeast swell in the western waters will subside by tonight. Long- period primarily southwest swell just south of the Equator will subside by Thu morning. $$ Christensen