000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220416 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 13.0N 101.9W at 22/0300 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted west of the center from 11N to 14N between 101W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 98W and 114W. Peak seas are currently 12 ft. Celia is expected to continue moving west- northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed through Friday. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next two to three days, and Celia is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 93W north of 08N to across the border between Guatemala and Mexico. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 100 nm either side of the wave from 08N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 13N97W and then from 14N115W to 10N130W. The ITCZ extends from 10N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 84W and 91W and from 07N to 13N between 116W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Celia currently located about 310 nm south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Outside of Celia, gentle northwest to north winds are noted off the Baja California offshores. Light to gentle winds are noted across the Gulf of California and throughout the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. Northwest swell is propagating through the water offshore extreme northern Baja California offshore waters, producing seas to 6 ft. Seas ranging 5-6 ft are noted across the the rest of the Baja California offshores. Outside of Celia, seas range 4-6 ft across the southern Mexico offshore waters and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through the rest of the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected return near the Baja California coast by Wed night through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California during the next several days. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will moderate north to northeast winds on Wed. Fresh to strong northwest winds will return to the Gulf by Thu morning through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Generally light to gentle winds are noted across the Central American and Colombian offshore waters with seas ranging 4-6 ft. Mixed swell is noted off the Guatemala and El Salvador offshores with southerly swell across the rest of the area. This swell will decay late tonight. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Island offshore waters with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue through Wed across the Central American and Colombian offshore waters. The Gulf of Papagayo will pulse moderate to locally fresh tonight and Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will continue offshore Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the rest of the week, and will spread into the Central American offshore waters later on Thu and Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is present north of 19N and west of 120W. The associated gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is allowing for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds along with seas of 5-8 ft north of 09N and W of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate south to southwest winds are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Northerly swell continues to propagate across the northern forecast waters north of about 28N and between 123W- 135W, with seas to 8-9 ft. By late Wed, this area will shift westward to west of 127W, with seas to 10 ft in NE swell. Swell producing seas to 8 ft are also noted across the western waters, from 8N to 26N and W of 130W. Southerly swell near the Equator is also moving across the area, S of 01N between 102W and 120W with seas 8-10 ft. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters during the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected along the southern periphery of the ridge through tonight. As the ridge weakens, winds will become light to gentle by Wed and continue into the weekend. The northwest swell impacting the northeastern forecast waters will propagate westward over the next few days to 140W and subside by Fri morning. The northeast swell in the western waters will subside by Wed afternoon. Long- period primarily southwest swell just south of the Equator will subside by Thu morning. $$ AReinhart